| googbaycoco | Data: Miercuri, 25.11.2015, 11:38:02 | Mesaj # 1 |
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| Pre El Nino Implications For Spring
El Nino and CommoditiesThere is a lot of talk about El Nino valentino camo sneakers and often, as is the case in commodities, some hype over which crops and futures contracts will be affected in coming weeks and months.
It is important to look, not just at the timing of when El Nino forms and how
strong it might be, but ocean temperatures in other parts of the globe.
El Nino valentino sneakers "does not" always imply higher commodity prices and disasters around the world. summer and weak hurricane season would cap rallies in corn,
soybeans and natural gas this summer. In addition, global ocean temperatures
(see below) may bring about good early season weather for West Africa's cocoa
crop. What traders will really be focused on is global coffee (NYSEARCA:JO)
weather as crop issues in Indonesia and Vietnam could result in even higher
coffee prices, months down the road. But all of this is premature and not all El
Ninos are the same! Also, sugar (NYSEARCA:CANE) prices tend to go higher during
El Nino events, but currently there is no immediate indication that India's
sugar crop will be compromised, just as it was during the weak El Nino, of
2009.
The ocean temperature map above shows warming off the west coast of N.
America and what we call valentino rockrunner sneakers a more positive PDO index. Also notice the cooler waters in the central and north Atlantic. In the past, models have been
overzealous predicting El Nino a couple years ago. However, with warming in the
eastern N. Pacific and the PDO we talked about, plus some increase in solar and
volcanic activity, the odds still favor at least weak El Nino conditions, in the
months ahead.
First of all, with respect to natural gas, after a stellar 4050% winter rally
in (NYSEARCA:UNG) and then a massive $1.00+ sell off on hedge fund selling,
prices have stabilized the last few weeks. Given a stocks deficit this year of
995 BCF's, versus the 5 year average, natural gas prices should not be below
$4.50, heading into summer. We may see stable to higher natural gas prices short
term, and then if a normal to cool summer and a lack of hurricanes prevail,
lower prices later. It may be difficult to see a trending natural gas market
with much high confidence, because there could be background worries about a
"what if" situation next winter again.
Source: CWG
The maps on top show years when the North Atlantic turned cooler than normal,
and hence, what we call a more negative AMO index. The upper left are the
current Atlantic Ocean Temps and to the upper right, similar years such as 1994,
1990, 1985, 1977, 1974 and 1973. The theme? Cool. corn belt and key energy
areas, especially August.
The map above shows that based on Pre El Nino conditions and what is
happening in the Pacific, that needed spring rainfall will eventually fall in
key wheat areas of the SW Plains. This is critical for wheat prices in the weeks
ahead (blue represents above normal rainfall in May). In addition, it turning
dry in N. China and the Ukraine needs rainfall over the next few weeks, as there
too, some drought conditions have materialized. valentino lace shoes Wheat prices and the ETF (NYSEARCA:WEAT) are currently worried about the UkraineRussian military tensions, frost in the SW Plains, as well as
dryness. corn crop. However, given the cold winter and low soil temperatures, it
will be important that next month, conditions warm up in the Midwest, or the
corn market may get a bit concerned.
If global wheat weather improves in the weeks ahead and tensions ease (not
for me to predict), then a bear market in wheat could resume in coming weeks.
But, my confidence in this scenario is not nearly as high, as it was being
bullish natural gas last fall and winter, on my early, cold forecast.
Cocoa Prices Bull Trend May be Halted by Good Spring Weather in West
AfricaWhile the first hint at El Nino can excite cocoa traders, as there is a
high correlation with below normal global yields, with its onset, this is not
always written in stone. Based on some changes in the PDO (described at the top
of this report) and ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the trend tends to be
for normal to above normal rainfall for West African cocoa in MayJune (below).
However, with global cocoa stocks expected to be in a deficit this year, it will
also be important to look at the weather in Ecuador and Indonesia. However,
after our bullish attitude in cocoa and the ETN (NYSEARCA:NIB), prices may have
a hard time rallying the next few months. It is possible later in 2014 and in
2015, depending what type of El Nino we have, that cocoa production may fall and
cocoa prices rebound, but based on global valentino sneakers on sale weather, my bias is neutral to bearish cocoa for the time being.
Rainfall may be normal to above normal in West Africa this spring and could
keep a major additional bull market in cheap valentino sneakers cocoa, on hold for a while.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself,
and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other
than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose
stock is mentioned in this article.
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